In the days following a flood of central bank meetings, including a historic Bank of Japan rate hike, US, Australian, and Japanese inflation signals should be watched.
Since Switzerland has started relaxing among big central banks and Europe's IPO wheels are moving, Sweden's Riksbank could complicate rate cuts. Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Rae Wee in Singapore, Anousha Sakoui and Dhara Ranasinghe in London, and Simon Johnson in Stockholm provide your week-ahead world market primer.
The March 29 U.S. inflation estimate is crucial for markets as the Federal Reserve maintained a rate cut projection this year despite a stronger economy. The February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index is likely to rise 0.4%, according to Reuters. The PCE index grew 0.3% in January, while inflation was the lowest in three years.
The Fed now expects the PCE index excluding food and energy to climb 2.6% annually by year-end, up from 2.4% in December. The 2024 economic growth forecast was also raised. Any sign of inflation rising might crush prospects of Fed easing soon, with a go-slow policy likely to remain.
The RBA will likely examine Wednesday's inflation print for upside surprises since February's data will include more price changes for services, which have been declining slower than goods.
A BOJ rate hike and an unexpected Swiss cut have excited traders. The Swiss action and the BoE's hint at easing indicate other global central banks will lower rates in June. In the next days, data and central-bank talk will be watched.
US Fed is the issue. It is sticking to three rate reduction, but strong data and sticky inflation might derail it. The world's oldest central bank, Sweden's, will likely maintain its benchmark rate on March 27. However, it may announce its first cut since tightening policy in spring 2022.
But skincare manufacturer Galderma (GALD.S), opens new tab priced its 2.3 billion swiss franc ($2.56 billion) IPO at the top of its specified price range and rose on Friday. Good performance may inspire other companies, including CVC. That should alleviate pressure on private equity firms to exit ventures, repay capital, and deploy assets.
follow for more updates